An updated analytical framework on cyber resilience and managing the response to hybrid threats

Abstract

The complexity of the international security environment, accentuated by the proliferation of hybrid threats and the increased interdependence between the physical, digital, and social domains, calls for the development of coherent analytical frameworks for managing the response at the national and European levels. Based on recent developments in Romania's eastern neighborhood and in the Euro-Atlantic space—the annexation of Crimea, the protracted conflict in Ukraine, the sabotage of critical maritime infrastructure, and the intensification of cyber and information attacks against democratic states—this article aims to outline a current framework for analyzing hybrid threats and to argue for the central role of cyber resilience and security culture in countering them. The paper is conceptual and exploratory in nature, based on the analysis of strategic and normative documents, specialized literature, and recent case studies. The main result is the proposal of a four-step analytical framework for managing hybrid threats (identifying the adversary's instruments of power, assessing vulnerabilities, identifying likely targets, calibrating the response by strengthening security culture and cyber resilience). The implications of the entry into force of recent European legislation on cybersecurity and digital operational resilience are also discussed.